Finance markets forecast prediction for the 2019 year
For years now when economic headlines have been shouted wolf is here, did he really arrive this time?
Summary of the year we had:
At the beginning of 2018, we saw strong declines in the indices, which were replaced by strong rises and the creation of new highs in the summer of 2018, which did not hold and the market suffered sales until the end of the year
2019 opens with lots of question marks:
February/March will be an important time point!
World Trade Wars – There is the talk of giving an endpoint to the March 2019 region
Britain and the Berkazit – in principle, Britain’s membership in the Union will expire in March unless it decides to change its mind at the last moment and stay inside.
swelling of world debts: In the US, the deficit was $ 205 billion in November, compared to $ 139 billion in November.
At this rate, and without taking into account the slowdown, not to mention the recession, expected next year, the government deficit will exceed the trillion-dollar level by 2019.
Combining a lethal combination of a global slowdown with a rise in the long-term interest rate because of the burden of impossible debt could lead to the start of the credit bubble explosion, The impact on the capital and employment markets could be brutal.
Will, the expected slowdown in the economy increase the already unconventional pressures on the part of the US president, should the central bank halt the interest rate hike, if not reduce it?
Looking at the price chart, the picture does not look so rosy if the situation continues to the US economy is expected to enter a sharp slowdown, perhaps even a recession.
Fed policy may slow growth and continue to tighten its policy as seen now. The expectation of interest rate hike in 2019: Expect three-point increases between now and June 2019. Another will take place after June 2019.
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| Fed policy |
Economic Outlook for 2019
My suspicion is that high volatility in 2019 will continue – the last 3-year prediction was even better than I expected, in continuing to 2018 forecast, this time I’m also not so optimistic, there is a probability of over 70% that the markets are going to get sell-off
The first option is a healthy correction that will lead markets and markets to new highs ahead
A second option is a sharp correction that could lead to a crash in the markets
Let’s say there are more risks than chances if you look unemotionally, 2019 could be a year full of surprises and possibly even sharp changes
Dollar expected to strengthen in 2019 ?- see 1999 as a sample to what we can experience in the markets
A scenario of us index loses 25% of its value in 2019 is not something detached from reality
Let’s see market-tested from the technical analysis viewpoint:
we can see a few interesting things -for nowadays the trend mixed – no doubt – strong correction after a strong decline
you should pay attention to 23,960 points, step down there could bring for corrections in the markets to 21,300 pints +_ or even further to 20,400 points -as long those points hold the trend is up, not argue with chart price –see the last post
Notice the movement that took place in the last crash – we are beginning to approach the extreme levels that were measured at that time- the last December the vol was very high especially During the days of the falls!
If the picture reflects what is to come then: we can expect more increases in the index, but not overtime, The parallel in terms of schedules can bring us another month or two of increases to extreme levels and from there … Caution is required!
Dow Jones price Levels of 24,600-25,300 are perceived by me as maximal levels of traffic ahead of market execution or correction -move above those points will be confirmed that the repair is over
In my opinion, there is a probability of over 70% that the correction is at the gate
Substantial levels are found in 3 points : 24,600-25,300/ 23,960+_ / 22,100 +_points –
Enter Bear Market option: market steep correction scenario could occur in two steps: The first option for the correction of 13-17%A second option is a more severe correction, even low levels of 20-30% to 18,300+_ points
Notice the orange strip that symbolizes a market in equilibrium
The market aspires to be close there
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| Dow Jones analysis |
This review does not include any document and/or file attached to it as an advice or recommendation to buy/sell securities and/or other advice
