USDJPY analysis,The forecast came true in 100%
this post is written by me for FXEMPIRE in 10.2.2016 – as you can see in your eyes 100% accurate
Global markets entered what could end up being called a true panic, much of the credit expansion of the last few years has been miss allocated towards emerging markets and commodities. The long-term thesis is that much of the global expansion in production for the last few decades has been based on an unsustainable expansion of credit. Productive economies such as Germany and China, in particular, have employed a vendor financing model where their reserves were re-lent to their customers at ever diminishing rates to consume more production. It is worth noting the state of the global banking shares, they are along with general stock markets are showing a severe crisis may now be underway. Credit default swaps for banks are rising and in particular, Deutsche Bank in Europe is now under severe pressure.
Bond Yield
Expecting and forecasting yields to fall for months now and the downtrend is now underway. The long-term thesis has been for a final blow-off top in the bond market to complete the bull market that began in the early eighties. It appears we are now entering that stage in the market as a global panic is currently underway, we believe capital is moving from emerging markets into US Treasuries as the cleanest shirt in the laundry bag.
Interest rates have been held too low for too long and our current crisis is as a direct result of this failed policy
From close look on the COT data USD/JPY we see occurrence Surprising, since the beginning of upward movement In 2012 the margin was more or less the same level, and now we are witnessing a fork returns, whether this heralds a return the JPY to a Safe haven.
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cot trade
U.S. stock markets, treasury bonds and the USD/JPY also have inverse relationships. When stock markets rise, bond prices fall, yields rise and the USD/JPY should be sold because investors are more willing to trade risky assets. Stocks are viewed as risky assets and not backed by a government with the ability to turn if fear grips the market. Liquidity here takes on risk rather than the safe status of treasuries.
Changes in correlations may occur for many reasons, U.S. issues more debt by sales of treasury bonds and adds money to the system – if U.S. buys back treasury bonds and adds money to the system. Recessionary times are quite different. What if the U.S. dollar and the yen are both in a downtrend?
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This review does not including any document and / or file attached to it as an advice or recommendation to buy / sell securities and / or other advice
