A big drama in New Zealand after the election Will Kiwi also embark on a new path

New Zealand technical analysis forecast 

A big drama in New Zealand after the elections ended without a clear winner:
New Zealand’s political parties on Thursday reached an agreement on the establishment of a center-left government led by Labor Party leader Gecinda Ardren, 37. In the September elections, the New Zealand National Party, led by conservative Bill English, the current prime minister, won the majority of votes, but the 55-year-old Englishman could not form a government himself.

The kiwi tumbled, reaching a near five-month low of $0.7027, losing 1.43% on the day.
For the past month or so FX volatility has been on the decline
but the NZDUSD is at the top of the list
NZDUSD one-week implied volatility peaked in mid-September at over 14.6% when it was at its highest levels since November. Since then it has declined to 9.21%. The projected one-standard deviation range from the current spot price is 7042-7224. Of particular interest is the alignment of the projected low and support in the vicinity of 7010/40. For kiwi to stop the series of lower highs and lower lows since July 
 A breakdown below 0.6970 and recently declining levels of volatility could quickly begin big move again.
Technical analysis:
Pay attention to the pattern – it could be that we see here gartley pattern’ this the situation so we should expect to see lower number below the last lows, while break above 0.7340-0.7460 could take him to 0.79 area
The NZD/USD might need to see further strength to move above the 0.7340-0.74400 resistance, which could indicate make new highs at 0.79 area; break below 0.6940+_ may expose what could be another step down below the previous lows key resistance area below the 0.6760 level
One more thing:
See the similar moves that happen in 1999
Break down0.6670-0.6780 will lead NZDUSD to lower prices 0.61′ and even lower to 0.53-0.59

position map analysis :

A ratio between short and long is currently at 1: 1.75, whereas in the previous times the ratio was between 1: 7 and 1:10 – that’s a big difference
While the regular customers of brokers can see that the ratio of short to long is about 65% long position versus 35% short position

nzd usd position map
nzd usd position 

This review does not including any document and / or file attached to it as an advice or recommendation to buy / sell securities and / or other advice


Leave a comment