EUR/TRY Technical Analysis Price Forecast Update
we can see a strong positive trend during the 2016 year on EUR/TRY on the global forex market. The Euro currency had earned value against Turkish Lira during the year of 2016. The starting point of EUR/TRY was at 3.30 level at the beginning of year. while in the 2 months the parity started to lose value rapid against Turkish Lira, and reached over the 3.80 level at the end of November
The Turkish lira had suffered the past year, loosing almost 20% against the greenback
The Turkish lira, which has been increasingly sensitive to local political risk, and the risk development on a broad basis, is heading into a complicated year, while
improved US yield outlook is dragging investors out of emerging markets
On the political side, we have also problems:
President Erdogan’s AK party and terrors attacks in the country
this situation will most likely not be viewed positively by international investors as it will put the continuity of stability in jeopardy and will increase political tensions within the country
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| EUR/TRY Technical Analysis |
The Turkish economy is already struggling to finance a massive trade deficit of roughly $15 billion, while GDP growth showed further signs of weakness recently. GDP growth slid into negative territory in the third quarter as it contracted 1.8%y/y versus 0.3% median forecast and 3.1% in the June quarter. Unfortunately, the outlook is not so pretty as the central bank continues to struggle with strong inflationary pressure, which is enhanced by the weak lira, and finds itself forced to tighten monetary policy. Indeed, in late November the CBRT increased two of its benchmark rates, lifting the repurchase rate by 50bps to 8% and the lending rate by 25bps to 8.50%
Technical analysis from a close look on the chart:
Break down 3.63 levels would lead the eur/try to 3.52+_ price levels and even lower to 3.47+_
While stay above this levels would expect the price to move further up and towards the 3.83 resistance zone. From there, if the bulls are strong enough to push the price further up, then I would expect to drive the battle higher and towards above 4.00
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| EUR/TRY Price |
This review does not including any document and / or file attached to it as an advice or recommendation to buy / sell securities and / or other advice