Global markets entered to A panic what the jpy could tell us about the future….
Global markets entered what could end up being called a true panic, much of the credit expansion of the last few years has been misallocated towards emerging markets and commodities. The long-term thesis is that much of the global expansion of production for the last few decades has been based on an unsustainable expansion of credit. Productive economies such a Germany and China, in particular, have employed a vendor financing model where their reserves were re-lent to their customers at ever diminishing rates to consume more production. It is worth noting the state of the global banking shares, they are along with general stock markets are showing a severe crisis may now be underway. Credit default swaps for banks are rising and in particular, Deutsche Bank in Europe is now under severe pressure
From close look on the COT data usdjpy we see occurrence Surprising, Since the beginning of upward movement In 2012 the margin was more or less the same level, And now we are witnessing a fork returns, whether this heralds a return the jpy to Safe haven…….
Bearish on the dollar
The markets have factored in further FRB rate hikes, but there are doubts about the figure of four hikes within 2016.Amid a lingering sense that further easing by the BOJ is approaching its limits, the dollar/yen pair’s movements are marked by a sense of fulfilment in relation to Japanese-U.S. interest-rate differentials. The dollar is expected to slide as real-demand investors build up hedges and speculators close out their dollar positions
The dollar/yen pair’s rise is likely to be kept in check by risk-evasive yen buying on the long-standing bearishness of crude oil prices; concerns about a Chinese economic slowdown; and ongoing concerns about geopolitical risk, with several regions across the globe at risk of terrorism. The next U.S. rate cut is likely to take a place from March or later, so the dollar is not expected to appreciate much on the back of rising U.S. interest rates
Bullish on the dollar
The theme will remain the pace of U.S. rate hikes. There is a gap between the forecasts of FOMC members and market participants when it comes to the pace of rate hikes, so the dollar/yen pair is likely to search for a sense of direction this month while taking on board the U.S. employment results and other data
Technical outlook on the usdjpy:
Analysis of all assemblies, we can see
Breaking area down from 114.30 to 80 pair, will lead to a strong descending process, the next support is located only at 106 area. Move in the future, may give a strong boost to Markets Exchanges a strong move downward
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This review does not including any document and / or file attached to it as an advice or recommendation to buy / sell securities and / or other advice